Elon Musk has given a new approximate launch date of Starship Flight 12, estimating six weeks until the first Block 3 ship and booster take flight from Starbase. For veteran watchers of the Starship program, most are familiar with the idea of “Elon Time,” and giving a more modest estimated launch date around mid to late April. This may sound rather pessimistic, but rocket science is unforgiving, and schedule slips are a fact of life in the business. And it’s for good reasons!

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SpaceX has a lot to do before their next launch, enough that even three months may be an optimistic timetable. Simply put, there are a lot of moving parts inside of a launch complex, and a lot of subsystems that have to work on a rocket. Each and every one of them needs to be assembled, checked out, characterized, and then qualified to operate within the acceptable parameters of the rocket’s propulsion systems. The tank farm was rebuilt, and the dynamics of the cryogenic conditioning lines, the control valves, flow rates, and the healthy function of every single subsystem needs to be analyzed. Launch Pad 2 is brand new, and has never supported a launch before. The fire, detonation and sound suppression systems, data and electrical connections, propellant flow rates, leak detectors and dozens of other subsystems need to be checked, rechecked, and validated before they can be deemed operational.

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All of this, and we haven’t even discussed  the rocket itself: Starship 39 and Booster 19 are almost complete, and both stages need to undergo cryogenic validation before moving on to static fire testing, which can’t be done until Massey Outpost and Pad 2 are fully operational. After that, at long last, we can expect to see a full stack wet dress rehearsal, and if all goes well, this will be the final test before Starship Block 3 is truly ready to fly. With such a long to-do list and each new step depending on the success of the step before, it would be a remarkable feat for SpaceX to successfully launch Starship Block 3 before May.

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These kinds of timetables do look pessimistic and it does feel like a long wait, but as the loss of Ship 36 and Booster 18 attest, it’s better to take your time when you’re in a hurry. It takes a lot longer to rebuild a pad and rocket than it does to be sure it’s ready to fly, after all. Take heart and be ready for the long haul. We here at Avid Space will be here every step of the way.

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